The prediction-market newsroom
The odds move first and the explanations come later, if at all. PolySays tracks meaningful Polymarket moves, attaches the evidence, and tells you plainly when there isn’t any.
How to read a PolySays move
ExampleWill the central bank cut rates in March?
YES
47%
34% yesterday47% now
Observed
The move is measured in percentage points. That is a fact about the price.
Evidence
We attach public sources and say how well they support an explanation.
Unexplained
No catalyst found? We say so. A price move is not proof of its cause.
Observed move → sourced evidence → or honestly unexplained. How we report
Last 24 hours
Changes are in percentage points, not percent returns.
A price move is an observation, not proof of its cause.
Past seven days
Published updates keep the observed move and the sourced context distinct.
The tracked probability rose to 54.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
Time-sensitive
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Showing 24 of 60 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Sports
Spread: Boluspor (-1.5)
52%
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: Both Teams to Score in First Half
50%
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 3.5
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.6
Latest: Probability moved from 46.55% to 52% (+5.45 percentage points). Observations were 6 hours 41 minutes 7 seconds apart: 2026-10-28 13:33:36 UTC to 2026-10-28 20:14:44 UTC.
Sports
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$2.3
Sports
Will Red Bull Salzburg finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
3%
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
3%
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 49.85% to 3.1% (-46.75 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes apart: 2026-11-02 16:40:35 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:38:35 UTC.
Sports
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Sports
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Sports
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Sports
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?
45%
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?
2%
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?
2%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$908.5
Latest: Probability moved from 2.6% to 44.5% (+41.9 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 4 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 21:37:50 UTC to 2026-11-02 23:41:57 UTC.
Sports
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$32.5
Sports
Will Anyone's Legend make a roster change by December?
93%
Will EDWARD GAMING make a roster change by December?
90%
Will NONGSHIM RED FORCE make a roster change by December?
82%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$140
Latest: Probability moved from 38.05% to 81.55% (+43.5 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 16:39:32 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:37:59 UTC.
Sports
Yes
82%
No
18%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$140
Sports
Will Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Lakers be the 2027 NBA Finals matchup?
6%
Will Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves be the 2027 NBA Finals matchup?
6%
Will New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets be the 2027 NBA Finals matchup?
4%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 49.8% to 5.4% (-44.4 percentage points). Observations were 23 hours 36 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-11-01 17:03:52 UTC to 2026-11-02 16:40:06 UTC.
Sports
Yes
6%
No
94%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$75
Sports
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)?
46%
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)?
3%
Will Central Córdoba (SdE) be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 3% to 45.55% (+42.55 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 3 minutes 38 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 21:38:30 UTC to 2026-11-02 23:42:08 UTC.
Sports
Yes
46%
No
54%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Sports
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
13%
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
7%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$55
Latest: Probability moved from 16% to 11.95% (-4.05 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes apart: 2026-10-31 21:18:16 UTC to 2026-10-31 21:34:16 UTC.
Sports
Yes
13%
No
87%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$48
Politics
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.7K
Latest: Probability moved from 63% to 96% (+33 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 3 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 21:38:10 UTC to 2026-11-02 23:41:33 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $251 to $1,672.633.
Politics
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.7K
Sports
Will J.T. Miller record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?
43%
Will Jake Guentzel record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?
33%
Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?
32%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 43% to 32% (-11 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 4 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 21:37:59 UTC to 2026-11-02 23:42:19 UTC.
Sports
Yes
43%
No
57%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Sports
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
100%
Will Helsingborgs IF be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
5%
Will Norrby IF be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
5%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 95.05% to 99.5% (+4.45 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes 28 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 16:39:27 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:37:55 UTC.
Sports
Yes
5%
No
95%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$55
Politics
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?
11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.B. Pritzker by October 31, 2026?
6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mike Rogers by October 31, 2026?
0%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.1
Latest: Probability moved from 39.9% to 5.55% (-34.35 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-11-02 16:39:32 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:37:59 UTC.
Politics
Yes
6%
No
94%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.1
Market prices reflect participants’ expectations, not certainty. PolySays is for information, not trading advice. Read our disclaimer.